ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: It is important to recognize the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients in severe conditions from moderate ones, thus more effective predictors should be developed. METHODS: Clinical indicators of COVID-19 patients from two independent cohorts (Training data: Hefei Cohort, 82 patients; Validation data: Nanchang Cohort, 169 patients) were retrospected. Sparse principal component analysis (SPCA) using Hefei Cohort was performed and prediction models were deduced. Prediction results were evaluated by receiver operator characteristic curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) in above two cohorts. RESULTS: SPCA using Hefei Cohort revealed that the first 13 principal components (PCs) account for 80.8% of the total variance of original data. The PC1 and PC12 were significantly associated with disease severity with odds ratio of 4.049 and 3.318, respectively. They were used to construct prediction model, named Model-A. In disease severity prediction, Model-A gave the best prediction efficiency with area under curve (AUC) of 0.867 and 0.835 in Hefei and Nanchang Cohort, respectively. Model-A's simplified version, named as LMN index, gave comparable prediction efficiency as classical clinical markers with AUC of 0.837 and 0.800 in training and validation cohort, respectively. According to DCA, Model-A gave slightly better performance than others and LMN index showed similar performance as albumin or neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio. CONCLUSIONS: Prediction models produced by SPCA showed robust disease severity prediction efficiency for COVID-19 patients and have the potential for clinical application.